Which Costa del Sol towns are most likely to be declared a 'zona tensionada'? A data-driven forecast

Published 4 September 2026

Current legal position you must know before reading

First, an important legal note. Andalucia has declared no zona tensionada and has not adopted the national rental reference index. That means, at the time of writing, no Costa del Sol municipality is officially listed by Andalucia as a zona tensionada. Also bear in mind that the national rent-cap decree, Real Decreto-ley 8/2026, was rejected by Congress on 28-04-26 and ceased to have effect on 30-04-26. It is not in force.

There is a national housing draft that includes measures such as IRPF bonifications for landlords, VAT on tourist flats and rules for temporary lets. That draft was withdrawn from the Council of Ministers agenda on 28-07-26 and postponed to September 2026. Until it is published in the BOE it remains a draft and not law.

Finally, if you operate tourist lets in Andalucia, you register with the RTA under Andalucia Decreto 31/2024 and must show the VFT code in adverts.

What is a zona tensionada and why a forecast matters

There is no single, universally applied formula across Spain for declaring a zona tensionada. In practice, governments look for a combination of persistent high rents, sharp price-to-income gaps, low housing supply relative to demand and strong tourist or second-home pressure. Although Andalucia currently has no such designations, landlords, buyers and local policymakers need to understand which towns would be at risk if regional or national policy changes.

Data and methodology - what we used and what we did not

This forecast uses two clean data sources for the Costa del Sol towns below - live MLS active-for-sale counts and Price Oracle median listing prices and median price per square metre. Where available, we use Price Oracle notary-verified price per square metre from the Spanish notarial register. We do not invent statistics or use unverified portal numbers.

The key signals we use are these - low supply measured as active for-sale listings, absolute median prices, and the gap between listed median EUR per square metre and notary-verified EUR per square metre. A large positive gap can indicate strong market tension - listings priced well above recent notarial transaction levels.

Limitations - we do not have up-to-date rental transaction data, household income, or population flows at municipal level in this dataset. Those are important for a full legal designation. This is a targeted, supply-price based risk forecast to help market participants prepare.

Comparison table - the live MLS and Price Oracle snapshot

Town	Active for-sale listings	Median price (EUR)	Median EUR/m2 (listings)	Notary-verified EUR/m2	Premium vs notary
Marbella	1466	EUR 1,475,000	EUR 6,262/m2	EUR 4,665/m2	+34.3%
Estepona	733	EUR 830,000	EUR 5,175/m2	EUR 3,437/m2	+50.6%
Benahavis	454	EUR 2,295,000	EUR 6,200/m2	EUR 4,529/m2	+36.9%
Nueva Andalucia	399	EUR 1,500,000	EUR 6,500/m2	n/a	n/a
Puerto Banus	122	EUR 1,200,000	EUR 7,364/m2	n/a	n/a
San Pedro Alcantara	214	EUR 1,075,000	EUR 5,667/m2	n/a	n/a
Sotogrande	84	EUR 2,195,000	EUR 4,696/m2	n/a	n/a
Mijas	440	EUR 599,500	EUR 3,774/m2	EUR 2,948/m2	+28.0%

How to read the table - what signals are strong and why

Three signals stand out from the data:

• High absolute median prices. Towns with median prices above EUR 1 million are prime-pressure candidates because high sale values often correlate with high rents and high seasonal demand.
• Low supply in relation to demand. Active listings give a snapshot of sell-side supply. Fewer listings can mean a tighter market and upward pressure on prices and rents.
• Large premiums over notary-verified prices. Where the listed EUR per square metre significantly exceeds notary transaction levels, there is likely a wedge between asking prices and recent market-validated transaction prices - this is a direct indicator of market tension.

Ranked forecast - which towns are most likely to be declared a zona tensionada if criteria were applied

Keeping the current legal reality in mind - Andalucia currently has no zona tensionada - here is a conditional ranking. This is an evidence-led forecast based strictly on the data signals above and common policy criteria.

1. Marbella - highest absolute demand and clear price tension

Marbella has the largest number of active listings on the Costa del Sol snapshot with 1,466 listings and a median price of EUR 1,475,000. Its median listing EUR per square metre is EUR 6,262, while the notary-verified register shows EUR 4,665/m2 source. That is a 34.3 percent premium over the notary figure, a strong signal of market tension. High tourist demand, large numbers of second homes and luxury inventory push both sale and rental prices higher. If policymakers used price gaps and high absolute prices as criteria, Marbella would be the leading candidate.

2. Benahavis - high prices with a meaningful premium

Benahavis shows a very high median price of EUR 2,295,000 and a median listing of EUR 6,200/m2. The notary-verified EUR/m2 is EUR 4,529/m2 source, a 36.9 percent premium. Inventory is smaller than Marbella, with 454 listings, which magnifies supply tightness in the high-end segment. For the purposes of a zona tensionada designation, Benahavis is a high-risk municipality because high unit prices and a large premium suggest persistent market pressure.

3. Estepona - large premium, rising profile

Estepona has 733 active listings, median EUR 830,000 and EUR 5,175/m2 on listings. The notary EUR/m2 is EUR 3,437/m2 source, producing the largest premium in our sample at 50.6 percent. A premium of this size points to a strong mismatch between asking prices and recent transaction levels, and is a clear warning sign for policymakers concerned with housing affordability.

4. Nueva Andalucia and Puerto Banus - price hotspots with limited supply

Nueva Andalucia and Puerto Banus show high median EUR/m2 on listings - EUR 6,500/m2 and EUR 7,364/m2 respectively - and median prices of EUR 1,500,000 and EUR 1,200,000. We do not have notary EUR/m2 in the dataset for these towns, so we cannot compute a premium. However, the combination of very high list values and relatively low numbers of listings - 399 in Nueva Andalucia and just 122 in Puerto Banus - suggests constrained supply in two of the Costa del Sols most price-dense neighbourhoods. If future policy uses absolute price thresholds, both towns are plausible candidates.

5. San Pedro Alcantara and Sotogrande - mixed signals

San Pedro Alcantara has 214 listings and a median EUR/m2 of EUR 5,667/m2. Sotogrande has the smallest stock in the sample with 84 listings and a median EUR/m2 of EUR 4,696/m2. Both have high median prices - San Pedro EUR 1,075,000 and Sotogrande EUR 2,195,000 - but lack notary EUR/m2 in the data provided. Sotograndes low listing count makes it locally tight, but the lower EUR/m2 compared with Marbella or Nueva Andalucia suggests slightly less pressure on rents.

6. Mijas - lower price base but a meaningful premium

Mijas shows a lower median price level - EUR 599,500 and EUR 3,774/m2 listed - but the notary-verified EUR/m2 is EUR 2,948/m2 source. The premium is 28 percent. While absolute prices are lower than the luxury towns, the premium signals upward pressure compared with recent transactions. Mijas is therefore a secondary candidate - more likely to be classed as tense if affordability metrics or rapid local price growth are used by authorities.

Practical implications - what buyers, sellers and landlords should do

• Buyers - use notary-verified price data as your negotiation anchor. Where listing EUR/m2 is far above notary transaction levels, you can make a data-led offer closer to recent sale prices.
• Sellers - high premiums indicate room to price for market optimism, but understand that actual transaction prices often track notary figures rather than asking prices. Price to sell, not to test the market.
• Landlords - keep in mind rent-update rules. Contracts signed from 26-05-2023 update with the IRAV index. Contracts signed earlier follow the index in the contract, usually the IPC. Even though Andalucia currently has no zona tensionada, rental policy can change, so factor regulatory risk into long-term leasing strategy.
• Investors in tourist lets - register with the RTA in Andalucia under Decreto 31/2024 and display the VFT code in adverts. Do not rely on any national short-let registration number - the national procedure in Real Decreto 1312/2024 was annulled by the Supreme Court in May 2026, and regional tourism registries apply instead.

How local authorities might refine criteria - what to watch for

If regional or national governments reopen the debate on zoning for rent controls, expect them to add variables beyond our dataset. Look for declarations that use rental affordability indexes, the ratio of median rent to median income, recent rental growth rates, household displacement metrics and tourism pressure indicators. For market participants, the best defence is transparency - track notary data, local rental listings and municipal planning activity.

FAQ

Q - Are any Costa del Sol towns already declared zona tensionada?
A - No. Andalucia has declared no zona tensionada at the time of writing.

Q - Does a high MLS price mean a town will be designated?
A - Not on its own. High MLS prices are a signal, but authorities normally consider multiple indicators including rental affordability, supply shortages and social impact.

Q - Why do notary EUR/m2 figures matter?
A - Notary-verified figures reflect transaction prices recorded in the official register. A large gap between listing EUR/m2 and notary EUR/m2 can indicate speculative asking prices and market tension.

Q - If my contract predates 26-05-2023 which index applies?
A - Contracts signed before 26-05-2023 normally use the index stated in the contract, commonly the IPC. Contracts from 26-05-2023 use the IRAV index for updates.

Q - Where can I check if a draft housing decree has become law?
A - Check the BOE on the day you need the information. The draft that includes tax and temporary-let measures was postponed to September 2026 and is not law until published in the BOE.

Conclusions - what the data says and the prudent next steps

Under a conditional assessment based on supply, absolute median prices and price premiums over notary transaction levels, Marbella, Benahavis and Estepona stand out as the highest-risk towns on the Costa del Sol for a hypothetical zona tensionada designation. Nueva Andalucia and Puerto Banus are also important hotspots because of very high EUR/m2 and relatively low supply. Mijas shows meaningful premium signals despite a lower price base, making it a secondary candidate.

However, the legal reality matters. Andalucia has declared no zona tensionada and regional procedure and tourism registration rules apply. If you are a buyer, seller or landlord on the Costa del Sol, use notary-verified data in negotiations, monitor BOE announcements and local municipal policy, and plan for regulatory changes by stress-testing cashflow and pricing assumptions.

Data sources used in this article are live MLS counts and Price Oracle median prices and notary-verified EUR/m2 where available. Where we cite notary-verified EUR/m2 we link the primary notarial register entries.